Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.60 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.45 %, Hang Seng declined 0.30 %, ASX 200 lost 0.10 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1251 (+0.35 %), Silver at $16.49 (+0.55 %), WTI Oil at $50.45 (+0.20 %), Brent Oil at $51.45 (+0.05 %)
- Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.71, UK 10 year yield at 1.28, German 10 year yield at 0.06
News & Data:
- China Trade Balance (USD) May: 49,98B (est. 55.70B, prev. 45.56B)
- China Exports (YoY) (USD) May: -4.1% (est. -4.00%, prev. -1.80%)
- China Imports (YoY) (USD) May: -0.4% (est. -6.80%, prev. -10.90%)
- Australia Home Loans (MoM) Apr: 1.70% (est. 2.50%, prev. -0.90%)
- Australia Investment Lending (MoM) Apr: -5.0% (prev. 1.50%)
- Japan GDP SA (QoQ) Q1 F: 0.50% (est. 0.50%, prev. 0.40%)
- Japan GDP Annualized SA (QoQ) Q1 F: 1.90% (est. 1.90%, prev. 1.70%)
- Japan BoP Current Account Balance (JPY) Apr: 1878.5B (est. 2303.0B, prev. 2980.4B)
- Japan Trade Balance BoP Basis (JPY) Apr: 697.1B (est. 919.0B, prev. 927.2B)
- New Zealand Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) Q1: -1.2% (prev. 1.30%)
- USD/CNY mid-point at 6.5593 (prev. fix 6.5618, prev. close. 6.5710)
- PBOC paper lowers CPI estimate for 2016 to 2.4%
- PBOC paper says China maintains 2016 growth target at 6.8%, lowers 2016 export growth to -1.0%
Markets Update:
The commodity currencies remain very well bid, with NZD being the top performing currency amongst the major pairs. NZD/USD extended gains to 0.6987 overnight and is likely to test 0.70 soon. Above there, resistance is seen at 0.7055, which is the current 2016 high. AUD/USD reached 0.7460 in Asia and resistance is noted at 0.7520. The Australian Dollar has been bid since the RBA statement yesterday, in which the central bank was less dovish than expected by the market.
USD/JPY came under pressure overnight as Asian equity markets declined. The pair fell from 107.40 in the early session to a low of 106.70. EUR/USD was quiet as usual and traded in a 1.1355-70 range. Similar price action was seen in GBP/USD, which consolidated between 1.4530 and 1.4560.
The main event today will be the RBNZ rate decision. The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, although some analysts predict another rate cut.
Upcoming Events:
- 08:15 BST – Swiss CPI
- 09:30 BST – UK Industrial Production
- 09:30 BST – UK Manufacturing Production
- 13:15 BST – Canadian Housing Starts
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Building Permits
- 15:00 BST – UK NIESR GDP Estimate
- 15:00 BST – US JOLTs Job Openings
- 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
- 22:00 BST – RBNZ Rate Decision
- 22:00 BST – RBNZ Statement
