Monday 13th June: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Equities: Nikkei 225 (-3.04 %), Shanghai Composite (-0.80 %), Hang Seng (-2.56 %), ASX 200 closed for holiday
  • Commodities: Gold at $1277 (+0.15 %), Silver at $17.15 (-1.00 %), WTI Oil at $48.40 (-1.30 %), Brent Oil at $49.95 (-1.20 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.62, UK 10 year yield at 1.24, German 10 year yield at 0.02

News & Data:

  • China Retail Sales (YoY) May: 10.0% (est. 10.10%, prev. 10.10%)
  • China Retail Sales (YtD) May: 10.2% (est. 10.20%, prev. 10.30%)
  • China Industrial Production (YoY) May: 6.0% (est. 6.00%, prev. 6.00%)
  • China Industrial Production (YtD) May: 5.9% (est. 5.90%, prev. 5.80%)
  • PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.5805 (prev. close 6.5603)
  • Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga: Won't comment directly on FX levels; aware of volatility in stocks, interest rates and FX
  • Allianz CIO says German bonds close to bubble territory

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR short 67K vs 38K short prior week
  • GBP short 66K vs 33K short prior week.
  • JPY long 43K vs 15K long prior week
  • CAD long 22KK vs 26K long prior week
  • CHF short 10K vs square per week
  • AUD 16K short K vs 5K short prior week
  • NZD long 9K vs 5.5 K Long prior week

Markets Update:

USD/JPY declined 1 % overnight as risk-off sentiment returned. The pair opened around 106.80 and extended losses to 106.85 overnight. The Nikkei 225, Japanese's leading stock market index, lost more than 3 % on the day.

The British Pound weakened in Asia amid on-going Brexit fears. GBP/USD ffell from 1.4270 to a low of 1.4160. EUR/USD traded in a 1.1230-55 range overnight and is currently unchanged on the day.

The Australian Dollar is slightly higher vs. the USD, at 0.7380. NZD/USD fell from 0.7065 to 0.7030 and is down 0.20 %.

Upcoming Events:

  • 14:30 BST – UK CB Leading Index

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, June 14th

  • 02:30 BST – Australian NAB Business Confidence
  • 05:30 BST – Japanese Industrial Production
  • 08:15 BST – Swiss CPI
  • 09:30 BST – UK CPI
  • 13:30 BST – US Retail Sales
  • 21:35 BST – US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 23:45 BST – New Zealand Current Account

Wednesday, June 15th

  • 01:30 BST – Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment
  • 07:45 BST – French CPI
  • 09:30 BST – UK Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 BST – UK Claimant Count Change
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Trade Balance
  • 13:30 BST – US PPI
  • 14:15 BST – US Industrial Production
  • 14:15 BST – US Manufacturing Production
  • 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 19:00 BST – Fed Rate Decision
  • 19:00 BST – FOMC Statement
  • 19:30 BST – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 23:45 BST – New Zealand GDP

Thursday, June 16th

  • 02:30 BST – Australia Employment Change
  • 02:30 BST – Australia Unemployment Rate
  • 04:00 BST – Bank of Japan Rate Decision
  • 08:30 BST – Swiss National Bank Rate Decision
  • 09:30 BST – UK Retail Sales
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
  • 13:30 BST – US CPI
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, June 17th

  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Current Account
  • 13:30 BST – US Building Permits
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian CPI

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