Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 2.20 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.15 %, Hang Seng rose 1.00 %, ASX 200 gained 1.30 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1286 (-0.70 %), Silver at $17.48 (-0.20 %), WTI Oil at $49.15 (+1.20 %), Brent Oil at $49.65 (+1.00 %)
- Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.65, UK 10 year yield at 1.14, German 10 year yield at 0.02
News & Data:
- Japan Trade Balance May (JPY): -40.7bln (est. 70bln, prev. 823.5bln)
- Japan Exports (YoY) May: -11.3% (est. -10%, prev. -10.1%)
- Japan Imports (YoY) May: -13.8% (est. -13.8%, prev. -23.3%)
- UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM) June: 0.8% (prev. 0.4%)
- UK Rightmove House Prices (YoY) June: 5.5% (prev. 7.8%)
- New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q2: 106.0 (prev. 109.6)
- New Zealand Performance of Services Index May: 56.9 (prev. 57.8)
- Brexit Poll: Opinium/Observer shows 44% Remain, 44% Leave
- Brexit Poll: YouGov/Sunday Times shows 44% Remain, 43% Leave
- Former Japanese MOF official says USD/JPY may hit 100 by the end of this year; intervention is possible if 100 is hit
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR 56K short vs. 67K short prior week
- GBP 37K short vs. 66K short prior week
- JPY 56K long vs. 43K long prior week
- CAD 18K long vs. 22K long prior week
- CHF 7K long vs. 10K short prior week
- AUD 7K short vs. 16K short prior week
- NZD 4k short vs. 9K long prior week
Markets Update:
The GBP rallied overnight as fears of a Brexit eased slightly. GBP/USD opened at 1.4460, up more than 100 pips from Friday's close and extended gains to 1.4620 later in the session. Large moves have been seen in the crosses as well, with GBP/JPY up more than 250 pips on the day.
The rally in the Pound pushed the Euro higher as well. EUR/USD started the new trading week at 1.1330, 50 pips higher from Friday's close. It later reached 1.1378. The commodity currencies benefited from the risk-on sentiment too, with AUD/USD rising from 0.7395 to 0.7450 and NZD/USD from 0.7045 to 0.7114.
Upcoming Events:
- 07:00 BST – German PPI
- 08:50 BST – Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speaks
- 18:30 BST – FOMC Member Kashkari speaks
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, June 21st
- 00:25 BST – RBA Assistant Governor Debelle speaks
- 00:50 BST – Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes
- 02:30 BST – Australia House Price Index
- 02:30 BST – RBA Meeting Minutes
- 07:00 BST – Swiss Trade Balance
- 10:00 BST – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 14:00 BST – ECB President Draghi speaks
- 15:00 BST – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
- 21:35 BST – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
Wednesday, June 22nd
- 01:30 BST – Australia Leading Index
- 13:30 BST – Canadian Retail Sales
- 15:00 BST – US Existing Home Sales
- 15:00 BST – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
- 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, June 23rd
- BREXIT REFERENDUM
- 08:00 BST – French Manufacturing PMI
- 08:00 BST – French Services PMI
- 08:30 BST – German Services PMI
- 08:30 BST – German Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Services PMI
- 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 14:45 BST – US Manufacturing PMI
- 15:00 BST – US New Home Sales
Friday, June 24th
- 09:00 BST – German IFO Business Climate
- 09:00 BST – German IFO Business Expectations
- 13:30 BST – US Durable Goods Orders
- 15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- 20:30 BST – US CFTC Positioning Data
