Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.05 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.25 %, Hang Seng fell 0.30 %, ASX 200 rallied 0.55 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1325 (-0.50 %), Silver at $19.51 (-0.90 %), WTI Oil at $44.08 (-0.30 %), Brent Oil at $45.95 (-0.30 %)
- Rate: US 10 year yield at 1.58, UK 10 year yield at 0.80, German 10 year yield at -0.02
News & Data:
- Japan Trade Balance JPY693bln (exp JPY495bln prev -JPY41bln)
- Japan Adjusted Trade Balance JPY0.33trln (exp JPY0.24bln prev JPY0.29trln)
- Japan Exports (y/y) -7.4 % (exp -11.6 prev -11.3 %)
- Japan Imports (y/y) -18.8 % (exp -19.7% prev -13.8 %)
- USD/CNY mid-point 6.6860 (prev. fix 6.6696, prev. close 6.68)
- G20 will use 'all policy tools' to lift growth as Brexit weighs – RTRS
- G7 wants to see Brexit talks start as soon possible: France
- U.S. Treasury's Lew: underscored U.S. economy as source of strength at G20
- Downward pressure still high but China can hit GDP target: central bank adviser
- China shows commitment to move to market-driven exchange rate: Treasury official
- BOJ's Kuroda says to ease again if necessary to hit 2 percent price goal – RTRS
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR 100K short versus 88K short last week. Shorts increase by 12K.
- GBP 74K short versus 60K short last week. Shorts increase by 14K.
- JPY 39K long versus 48K Long last week. Longs fall by 9K.
- CHF 4.7K long versus 6.7 K long last week. Longs fall by 2K.
- AUD 33K long versus 16K last week. Longs increase by 17K.
- NZD 2.2 long versus 1.0 K Long last week. Longs increase by 1.2K.
Markets Update:
EUR/USD started the new trading week around 1.0970, little changed from Friday's close. Euro came under pressure as Tokyo opened and EUR/USD declined to 1.0950, but managed to bounced from there and is currently back at 1.0970. GBP/USD opened at 1.3145, roughly 35 pips higher from Friday's close, but failed to sustain momentum and eventually fell back to 1.3110 to close the weekend gap. It then consolidated between 1.3110 and 1.3135 for the rest of the session.
USD/JPY started the day at 106.20 and slowly rose towards 106.70, but ran into decent offers there. After the topside was capped there, it fell back to 106.25. Expect heavy resistance around the 106.80 level. Support is seen at 105.80 and 105.50.
AUD/USD is up on the day, as it rallied from 0.7450 at the open to a high of 0.7480. However, the New Zealand Dollar fell sharply as expectations of a RBNZ rate cut next month remain high. NZD/USD declined from 0.7015 to a low of 0.6955 so far.
Upcoming Events:
- 08:30 BST – RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks
- 09:00 BST – German IFO Business Climate
- 11:00 BST – UK CBI Industrial Trend Orders
- 15:30 BST – US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
- 23:45 BST – New Zealand Trade Balance
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, July 26th
- 06:00 BST – Singapore Industrial Production
- 13:55 BST – US Redbook
- 14:45 BST – US Services PMI
- 15:00 BST – US CB Consumer Confidence
- 15:00 BST – US New Home Sales
- 15:00 BST – US Richmond Manufacturing Index
Wednesday, July 27th
- 02:30 BST – Australia CPI
- 07:00 BST – German Consumer Climate
- 07:45 BST – French PPI
- 09:30 BST – UK GDP
- 13:30 BST – US Durable Goods Orders
- 15:00 BST – US Pending Home Sales
- 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
- 19:00 BST – FOMC Statement
- 19:00 BST – Federal Reserve Rate Decision
Thursday, July 28th
- 02:30 BST – Australia Export Price Index
- 03:30 BST – Singapore Unemployment Rate
- 08:55 BST – German Unemployment Rate
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Business Climate
- 13:00 BST – German CPI
- 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 14:45 BST – US Consumer Confidence
Friday, July 29th
- (Tentative) – Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
- 00:30 BST – Japan Unemployment Rate
- 00:30 BST – Japan Household Spending
- 00:30 BST – Japan CPI
- 00:50 BST – Japan Retail Sales
- 02:00 BST – New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence
- 02:30 BST – Australia PPI
- 06:00 BST – Bank of Japan Outlook Report
- 06:00 BST – Japan Housing Starts
- 07:00 BST – German Retail Sales
- 07:45 BST – French CPI
- 08:00 BST – Spanish CPI
- 08:00 BST – Spanish GDP
- 10:00 BST – Italian CPI
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone GDP
- 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Unemployment Rate
- 13:30 BST – US GDP
- 13:30 BST – Canadian GDP
- 14:30 BST – FOMC Member Williams speaks
- 14:45 BST – Chicago PMI
- 15:00 BST – Michigan Consumer Confidence
- 20:30 BST – CFTC Positioning Data
