Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.80 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.85 %, Hang Seng and ASX 200 both gained 0.20 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1268 (-0.15 %), Silver at $17.29 (-0.15 %), WTI Oil at $49.50 (+0.70 %), Brent Oil at $50.20 (+0.65 %)
- Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.70, UK 10 year yield at 1.32, German 10 year yield at 0.05
News & Data:
- Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Jun P: 47.8 (prev. 47.7)
- JPM: Brexit polling update suggests a small lead for Remain
- YouGov Brexit poll 49% Leave, 51% Remain
- Comres Brexit poll 42% Leave, 48% Remain
- G7 will issue a joint statement stressing their readiness to take all necessary steps to calm markets if Britain votes to exit the EU – RTRS
- BoJ's Kiuchi: Cut in bond buys would help sustainability of QE; output likely to remain neutral, hard to expect inflation will increase
- BoJ's Kiuchi: Japan's potential growth rate has not changed in past few years, still 0-0.5%; global financial markets are biggest risk to Japan
- BoJ's Kiuchi: Expects annual inflation to slow in coming months; does not expect core CPI to hit target by 2018
Markets Update:
The focus is now entirely on today’s Brexit vote. Polls will open at 7am UK time and the first results are expected to arrive at midnight. It is difficult to predict when we will know exactly if the UK will remain part of the EU or leave, as it depends on how close it is. If it very close, traders might have to wait until 6-7am Friday to be sure.
GBP/USD rose overnight to a fresh 6-month high after two new polls showed that "Remain" is leading. The next main resistance levels are now 1.4895 and 1.50, although technical levels won't matter much tonight. EUR was boosted by the rally in GBP, and EUR/USD rose from 1.1295 to 1.1350 in Asia. USD/JPY was relatively quiet, trading in a 104.50-105 range.
The commodity currencies benefited from the broad USD weakness with AUD/USD rising from 0.7490 to 0.7530 and NZD/USD from 0.7150 to 0.7185.
Upcoming Events:
- BREXIT VOTE
- 08:00 BST – French Manufacturing PMI
- 08:00 BST – French Services PMI
- 08:30 BST – German Manufacturing PMI
- 08:30 BST – German Services PMI
- 09:00 BST – Norges Bank Rate Decision
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Services PMI
- 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 14:45 BST – US Manufacturing PMI
- 15:00 BST – US New Home Sales
