Thursday 7th July: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.35 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.50 %, Hang Seng rose 0.75 %, ASX 200 gained 0.40 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1370 (+0.20 %), Silver at $20.23 (+0.10 %), WTI Oil at $47.60 (+0.30 %), Brent Oil at $48.95 (+0.30 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.37, UK 10 year yield at 0.77, German 10 year yield at -0.18

News & Data:

  • Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index Jun: 53.2 (prev 46.7); 10-month high
  • Japan Official Reserve Assets (USD) Jun: 1.2654tln (prev 1.254tln)
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda: To maintain QQE with negative interest rates for as long as necessary
  • Kuroda: Will add stimulus via cutting rates or boosting QE if needed
  • Kuroda: Financial system is maintaining stability
  • Kuroda CPI expected to be slightly negative or around 0% for time being
  • S&P revises Australia outlook to negative from stable; rating affirmed at AAA
  • Fed minutes suggest rate hikes on hold until Brexit impact clearer – RTRS
  • Asia stocks bounce, Aussie dollar hit by ratings blow – RTRS
  • Oil edges up on U.S. inventories, but slowing Asia weighs – RTRS

Markets Update:

The Pound recovered slightly in Asia as risk appetite improved. GBP/USD rose from 1.2880 to a high of almost 1.30. The US Dollar came under slight pressure after the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. The central bank met before the Brexit vote result was announced and expressed already then concerns about the possible impact on the US should the UK vote to leave. FOMC members agreed that the Fed should wait for additional data on the consequences of the UK vote before making another rate hike.

EUR/USD saw a small decline following the Tokyo open, but managed to bounce from 1.1075 and is now back above 1.11. USD/JPY is down on the day, having fallen from 101.40 to 100.80 overnight. The Yen continues to benefit from the Brexit uncertainties and it is probably only due to the BoJ intervention that USD/JPY is still trading above 100.00.

AUD/USD saw a sharp decline overnight as S&P announced that they revised their outlook for Australia's credit rating from "neutral" to "negative", amid on-going uncertainties around the election held on Saturday and concerns about the country's fiscal policy.

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:00 BST – German Industrial Production
  • 08:15 BST – Swiss CPI
  • 09:30 BST – UK Manufacturing Production
  • 09:30 BST – UK Industrial Production
  • 12:30 BST – ECB Meeting Minutes
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Building Permits
  • 15:00 BST – UK NIESR GDP Estimate
  • 15:00 BST – Canadian Ivey PMI
  • 15:00 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories

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